EXPLAINER - What to expect at NATO's pivotal summit: Defense spending, Ukraine, Iran fallout
NATO leaders will debate a US-backed plan for members to spend 5% of GDP on defense, a proposal facing pushbacks
A general view of the street as preparations continue ahead of the NATO Leaders� Summit to be held at the World Forum in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 23, 2025.
- Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to attend as NATO reaffirms Ukraine's future membership path
- Summit comes amid rising US-Iran tensions following recent strikes and counterattacks
THE HAGUE
Leaders of NATO's 32 member states will gather in The Hague on June 24-25 for a critical summit dominated by debates over increased defense spending, Ukraine's membership bid and the geopolitical fallout from recent US strikes on Iran.
At a meeting on June 5 at NATO headquarters in Brussels, allied defense ministers agreed on the capability goals needed for the coming years. The most contentious item expected to be formally adopted in The Hague is a US-backed proposal requiring member states to allocate at least 5% of their GDP to defense spending, a goal initially floated during Donald Trump's first presidency.
Currently, European allies spend an average of 1.9% of GDP on defense. Canada allocates around 1.4%, while the US spends approximately 3.5%.
Under a compromise formula proposed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, 3.5% of the 5% target would be earmarked for direct military capabilities including weapons, ammunition, training and forces, while the remaining 1.5% could cover general security investments and aid to Ukraine.
The initial aim is to reach the target by 2032. However, neither this potential adjustment nor Rutte's formula has garnered unanimous support among allies.
Opposition within the alliance
Spain has emerged as the clearest opponent of the proposed target. With the lowest defense spending in the alliance at 1.3% of GDP, it is seeking exemption from the new benchmark. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has reportedly sent a letter to Rutte urging that the summit declaration either make the spending target voluntary or explicitly exclude Spain from the 5% requirement.
Rutte has justified the 5% goal largely on the basis of growing threats from Russia. However, threat perception varies across the alliance, and many governments face domestic resistance to increased military spending due to rising national debt and public skepticism. Sanchez argued that the 5% goal does not align with Spain's strategic vision and is not necessary for fulfilling NATO obligations.
"Spain thinks they can achieve those targets on a percentage of 2.1% of gross domestic product," Rutte told reporters Monday ahead of the summit. "NATO is absolutely convinced Spain will have to spend 3.5% to get there."
On Monday, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico joined Spain's calls. Fico said that Slovakia reserves the right to decide how fast and by how much it will increase its defense budget, arguing that Bratislava can fulfill its NATO commitments without hitting the 5% mark.
The key challenge for Rutte is to persuade all allies to set aside their objections before leaders' discussions, when Dutch King Willem-Alexander will host an official dinner for the leaders.
Zelenskyy, EU and Asia-Pacific leaders to attend
A dinner hosted by the Dutch King will bring together several key figures beyond NATO's core membership, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, European Council President Antonio Costa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and leaders from Asia-Pacific partners such as Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan.
Zelenskyy's invitation is being interpreted as a symbolic gesture of support. The summit declaration is expected to include a reference to NATO's "sovereign commitments" to Ukraine's security.
While former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg frequently stated that Ukraine could join NATO "after the war ends," Rutte clarified that "no promises have been made." However, he reaffirmed Monday that Ukraine's path to NATO membership, deemed "irreversible" at last year's Washington summit, remains unchanged.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump previously said that Ukraine’s NATO membership will never happen and claimed the issue was the root cause of the war with Russia.
Escalation in Middle East
Beyond the debate over numbers, the summit risks being overshadowed by a more urgent geopolitical development: US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's counterattack targeting US bases in Qatar and Iraq.
Just days before the summit, the US operation reignited fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East, stirring concerns among European allies.
The crisis has prompted renewed discussions about missile defense and counterterrorism, which are expected to be on the agenda alongside defense spending. However, the broader concern is whether the Iran conflict will derail the summit's core focus and signal a distracted alliance.
Experts note that the Iran issue represents an unpredictable and potentially destabilizing factor for the summit. With Washington's focus increasingly shifting from Europe and Russia toward the Middle East and Asia, European allies fear losing political momentum and unity against Russia.
Addressing the Iran issue just days after the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, the NATO chief reaffirmed on Monday the alliance's longstanding position against nuclear proliferation.
