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Saudi Aramco prepares for $2T IPO in Tadawul on Dec. 11

- World's most profitable company targets $2 trillion valuation that is set to surpass Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet


After three years of delays and uncertainties, Saudi Arabia's crown jewel, Aramco, finally received regulatory approval on Sunday for its scheduled listing on Dec. 11 in the SaudiÌýstock exchange Tadawul, potentially the world's biggestÌýinitial public offering (IPO).

Saudi Aramco'sÌýIPOÌýprospectus, which will include financial statements, will be released on Nov. 10, while pricing Aramco shares will begin on Nov. 17, and the final share price for the IPO will be determined on Dec. 4.Ìý

"Over the last three years, we were responsible for one in every eight barrels of crude oil produced globally," Aramco President and CEO Amin H. Nasser said in a statement

"And our proved liquids reserves, at the end of 2018, were five-times larger than the combined proved liquid reserves of the Five Major IOCs [international oil companies]," he added.

As part of his 2030 Vision plan, SaudiÌýCrown Prince Mohammed bin Salman aims to raise $100ÌýbillionÌýthroughÌýtheÌýpublicÌýoffering of 5% of Aramco shares, which then would make the company's market valueÌýatÌý$2 trillion.Ìý

Most analysts, however, findÌýthisÌýtarget too optimistic, and estimate that Aramco's market valuation will be around $1.5 trillion on Dec. 11.

Yet, this estimateÌýwillÌýstill surpass the market capitalizations of American technology giants such as Apple, which stood at $1.14 trillion as of Monday, Microsoft at $1.1 trillion, Google's parent company Alphabet at $878 billion, and the biggest U.S. energy firm ExxonMobil at $294 billion.Ìý

The Saudi crown jewelÌýhadÌýan average of 13.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil equivalent in the first half of 2019, including 10 million bpd of crude oilÌýwithÌýblended condensate.Ìý

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-Benefits

For Aramco's IPO, U.S.-based global investment banking giants such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have been hired to lead the process.Ìý

Initially, only 1%-2% of Aramco shares plan to be offeredÌýon theÌýTadawul on Dec. 11, which also aims toÌýattract foreign investors and capital to the Saudi stock exchange.Ìý

While bin Salman urged wealthy locals to buy Aramco shares,Ìýregulatory benefits for shareholders are available toÌýmakeÌýthe company's shares attractive.Ìý

From Dec. 11, the first date of listing and trading, if Saudi retailers hold Aramco sharesÌýwithout selling for 180 days, they will receive one bonus share for every 10 sharesÌýthey own up to a maximum of 100 bonus shares per person.Ìý

The tax rate on Aramco's downstream business will be lowered toÌý20% from 50%, and the company will not pay royalties on condensate production for 10 years starting from 2023.

- Risks and worries

Aramco is expected to make other IPOsÌýaround the world to float 3%-4% of its shares in the stock exchangesÌýof Tokyo, Hong Kong, London and New York in the next couple of years; however, there areÌýconcernsÌýand some risks.

Due to Brexit, the London Stock Exchange is regarded as an uncertain market. In addition, U.S. Congress' decision in 2016ÌýtoÌýallow American victims and their families to sue the government of Saudi Arabia for Sept. 11 attacksÌýcomplicates the floating of shares on theÌýNew York Stock Exchange.

Investors are also worried that Saudi AramcoÌýwillÌýnot provide enough transparency on how much crude oil is left in the kingdom's reserves, and are skepticalÌýoverÌýthe close ties between the royal family and Aramco's executives.Ìý

In addition, the drone attacks on two of Saudi Aramco facilities on Sept. 14 that caused a production cut of 5.7 million bpd,Ìýequal to around 6% of global oil output, have raised some eyebrows about the security of the company's infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia spent $68 billion for defense in 2018, ranking third in terms of expenditureÌýafter the U.S. and China. However, when taking into accountÌýthe GDP of countries, the kingdom is rated as having the largest ratio of defense expenditure to GDP.Ìý

IfÌýinvestors'ÌýdemandsÌýare notÌýin keeping with expectationsÌýfor Aramco's IPO on Dec. 11,ÌýitÌýcould hurt further floating in foreign stock markets as well.Ìý

Bin Salman wants the IPO to be successful for his Vision 2030 plan, as heÌýaims to use earnings from the shares sale to invest in other sectors to wean off the Saudi economy's overdependence on oil exports and revenues.Ìý

Writing byÌýOvunc Kutlu

Editing by Anne Akti

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr