- The Writer holds听an MSc in Eurasian Political Economy & Energy听from King鈥檚 College London and听also an听MA in European Studies from Sabanc谋 University.
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The pledges made in the Paris Agreement at the 21st COP 21 conference on climate change marked a critical milestone in the field of climate negotiations and has given a new impetus for the transition towards a low-carbon energy future.
Both developed and developing countries were involved in the COP 21 meeting where universal support from over 190 countries was achieved. Through the submission of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), the countries took action to decrease their overall carbon emissions with the intention of keeping the global average temperature from climbing above 2 degrees Celsius and with the aim of striving more towards 1.5 degrees Celsius. The agreement entered into force shortly after Nov. 4, 2016.
Following the agreement鈥檚 ratification, the existing INDCs automatically became Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The parties who acceded to the agreement became part of agreed procedures that obliged them to submit NDCs over a five-year period to provide a basis in which progression could be measured.
A variety of key energy indicators revealed progress made following the successful outcome of the negotiations. The International Energy Agency鈥檚 study showed that both in 2015 and 2016, energy-related carbon dioxide remained flat despite the recorded economic growth of the world economy over the same period, proving the fact that energy transition towards deployment of low-carbon technologies has been growing.
For the first time in 2015, more than 50 percent of new electricity generation capacity installed worldwide was based on renewables. Growing policy support for renewables, in the form of incentives and subsidies, has paved the way for cost reductions and for research and development, particularly in wind and solar photovoltaics.
Likewise, policy support for energy efficiency laid the groundwork for achieving deep cuts in emissions by enforcing mandatory energy efficiency regulations. While a decade ago, the overall target for energy efficiency was set to achieve 14 percent in carbon emission reductions whereas in 2015 it was extended to 30 percent, according to the International Energy Agency鈥檚 World Energy Outlook in 2016. Although tackling climate change has seen a marked sign of progress following the Paris Agreement, there is room still for growth in many fields since pledges made under the COP 21 have not proved yet to be compatible with the target of 2 degrees Celsius.
United Nations statistics indicate that the average global temperature increased by 0.85 掳C from 1880 to 2012, while the global sea level increased by 19 centimeters within the same period. Since 1990, global carbon emissions increased by 50 percent. Compared with the pre-industrial level, the stock of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has risen from 280 parts per million (ppm) carbon dioxide to today鈥檚 level of 430 ppm.
It is estimated that to keep the stock of emissions in the atmosphere between a range of 500 to 550 ppm of CO2, it would require around 1 percent of the world鈥檚 GDP. As the world has to shift from a high carbon-based economy to a low carbon-based economy, the expenses incurred would be at such a high level that could possibly discourage policy makers.听 Nonetheless, various business opportunities can be exploited.
In the fight against climate change, a combination of methods can be utilized to achieve a deep cut in the medium to long-term period. Firstly, demand for emissions-intensive services and goods could be diminished through the implementation of stronger efficiency measures. The biggest sources of single emission savings can be sought through energy efficiency, according to the International Energy Agency. Despite the significant improvement in efficiency in energy supplies in recent years, policy implications to scale up the transition towards increased efficiency measures is still in its early phase with many opportunities yet to be explored.
Additionally, incentives and subsidies allocated for high carbon-based sectors could be switched to low carbon-based sectors with the intention of further supporting cost reductions through new technologies.
This would create tremendous business opportunities for the energy industry once the overall cost of renewable energy reduces to that of high carbon-based technologies. The rapid cost reduction in renewable power generation technologies through support from further incentives as well as subsidies is therefore of the utmost importance in accelerating the transition to a low carbon economy.听
And the best remedy for a lower carbon future is embedded in the prevention of deforestation since action on non-energy emissions ranks highly in contributing towards this goal, and the possibility in this field is far from being exhausted.
As it is very unlikely that a reversal in climate change can take place in a short period of time, particularly given the quantity of gas already concentrated in the atmosphere, it is consequently a pre-requisite for both developed and developing countries to take bold action towards a long-term pro-growth strategy that does not cap aspirations. It is possible that the business-as-usual path is no longer viable since the benefits of early action will significantly outweigh the costs of inaction. In this regard, early action in tackling climate change will pave the way for the successful mitigation of adaptive policies.听
- Opinions expressed in this piece are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu Agency's editorial policy.