- The Writer holds听an MSc in Eurasian Political Economy & Energy听from King鈥檚 College London and听also an听MA in European Studies from Sabanc谋 University.
Israel, a neighbor with potential to be a major source of gas supply in the years ahead in the East Mediterranean, has taken further steps towards mending fences with Turkey. Full restoration of ties between Turkey and Israel may take much longer than many experts anticipate, however, increasing energy ties would further strengthen the relationship.
As Soner Cagaptay, the Washington Institute fellow, states, 鈥渁 pipeline would be a huge deal, meaning that the next time the Turkish-Israeli relationship faces a political shock like in 2010, that pipeline would keep them together, given its political, economic, and commercial ramifications.鈥�
Turkey would shore up its relationship with the U.S. and NATO countries in times of high tension arising from the ongoing Syrian war, and Israel would tighten its relationship with its neighbors, in particular Turkey, Jordan and Egypt. As Cagaptay puts it, 鈥渆arlier, diversifying energy supplies was a long-term need that Turkey had. With the crisis with Russia, this has become a pressing need.鈥�
Israel's largest private power producer Edeltech and Turkey鈥檚 Zorlu Enerji group, both of whom collaborated for the Dorah Energy plants in Israel, have agreed to buy $1.3 billion worth of gas for an eighteen year period, according to Reuters. This agreement can be interpreted as a signal of trust in Israel鈥檚 promising Leviathan and Tamar gas fields. It was agreed that prices would be pegged to the cost of electricity production.
Despite its overly ambitious appearance, an early estimate by the Israeli energy ministry, anticipated that by 2023 onward, a volume of 6 billion cubic meters (bcm) would likely be provided, on the assumption that political tensions are set aside and potential business plans are put in place.
Different scenarios are on the table regarding how Israel would be able to export gas to the EU market. Among the variety of potential projects, the most commercially viable and economically sound option would be to construct a shared liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility with Cyprus as well as an underwater pipeline to Turkey. This dual strategy would benefit Turkey, Israel and would give the parties flexibility in transporting gas to a greater number of destinations.
The potential pipeline to Turkey would feed the EU market, while a LNG facility would provide liquid gas to the Far-Asian market. It is argued that an onshore LNG terminal on Israeli land would be the first potential option, but given physical security issues and potential environmental problems, this proposal would have to be shelved and replaced with either a shared LNG facility with Cyprus or a floating LNG terminal off the Israeli cost.
At a conference in Ankara, the Foreign Ministry of Israel鈥檚 special energy envoy headed by Michael Lotem, clearly stated the position of Israel in an agreement with Turkey over a potential pipeline by saying, 鈥淚srael鈥檚 door is open to such [a] deal.鈥�
He further commented on the viability of potential projects by pointing out that 鈥渁 pipeline to Turkey [is] low cost when you compare it to other options to export the gas to further flung destinations.鈥�
To show the sincere interests of Turkey to commit to further deepening ties with Israel in energy relations, former energy minister Taner Y谋ld谋z in 2013 highlighted that, 鈥淭urkey is interested in Israeli gas. Once such a project comes online, Turkey鈥檚 heavy reliance on Russia as well as its dependence on Iran and Azerbaijan would be diminished as a percentage of overall supply, even if this is not initially to a significant degree. Such a concerted effort between Turkey and Israel would send a message to EU countries, specifically to Cyprus, that all parties would benefit in cooperating with Turkey.
By exporting gas either in the form of LNG or through pipelines, gas transportation between Turkey and Israel would transcend the commercial aspect of the project. If this project were to be realized, it would not only serve to strengthen the strategic partnership with Israel but also would help Turkey to diversify its overall gas portfolio and further increase the overall gas volume in the Turkish gas market.
An estimated capacity of 6 bcm of natural gas from Israel, with a potential to increase afterward, would serve Turkey鈥檚 purpose in achieving the set target of becoming a genuine energy-trading hub in the region. Other than Turkey鈥檚 own gas consumption, a gas supply surplus is also needed for enlarging its storage capacity as well as for the creation of a market that would serve to set natural gas pricing. As John Reed from the Financial Times describes, 鈥淚srael is on the threshold of becoming a major energy power鈥� in the region, recognizing the economic imperative of a pipeline in a very volatile region would serve as a catalyst for strategic partnership with game-changing consequences.
- Opinions expressed in this piece are the author鈥檚 own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu Agency's editorial policy.听
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