With the initiation of the EU’s strategic energy policy in 2000, an EU-Russia energy dialogue was established to strengthen their relationship, to increase confidence and transparency in energy agreements and to establish security and consistency for the benefit of both parties.
Since then, at almost any energy summit, it has been emphasized that, “the EU and Russia are interdependent energy partners� and this interdependence between the partners is mutually beneficial. From Russia’s point of view interdependency has meant that, “Russia needs demand security when the European Union requires supply security�.
However, the forum designed for resolving the conflict and creating a mutual trust between Russia and the EU has progressed slowly, and, with individual member states being in charge and taking the initiative themselves rather than waiting for the EU itself to take the lead in the decision making progress, the expected result has still not been achieved.
Additionally, the conflict between Russia and Georgia created a sense of urgency among EU politicians and fuelled fears over whether the EU could expect another blackmailing over gas supplies for the coming cold winter months. At the time of this crisis with Georgia in 2008, the former British Prime Minister Brown made the assertion that, “no nation can be allowed to exert an energy stranglehold over Europe,� in response to fears that a territorial conflict over South Ossetia would risk turning into an energy war.
During the crisis that occurred between Russia and Ukraine in 2006 and 2009, mutual trust further declined. As a result, Russia compromised its reputation in the eyes of the EU due to the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
Further clarifying the EU Energy Commission’s position as well as where they stood on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Commissioner Oettinger at one of the energy security forums in Kiev stated that, “the gas sector and the energy sector as a whole should not be a political tool� and “it should not be a weapon in these difficult times, in the crises between Ukraine and Russia and between Europe and Russia.�
In the aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis, the EU financial fund initiative to assist EU countries to enhance the interconnection of infrastructure in the energy sector was introduced in 2009 named the ‘European Energy Program for Recovery (EEPR). One of the aims was to create an environment in which there could be increased resilience in member countries that are particularly prone to suffering from gas flow interruption due to the continuing conflict between Russian and Ukraine. A considerable amount of funding from this program was allocated to Eastern, Central and South European countries, where most of the domestic gas networks and reverse gas flow infrastructure were missing.
Some aspects of the program have achieved its primary purpose, however insufficient storage capacity of member states, and the continued heavy reliance on Russian supplies, have so far proved that energy supply security through diversification has not yet materialized.
Therefore, it does not appear that Russia’s influence over EU countries is likely to fade away anytime soon given the general reliance on Russia’s supplies, despite individual EU countries differing in their natural gas needs. For instance, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Finland, Croatia, Greece and the Baltic countries have no natural production of their own and import almost all of their gas demand from Russia and from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Some other EU countries are partly dependent: Germany imports 40 percent of its gas needs while Poland imports 70 percent of its needs from Russia. Although at an individual level, over-reliance on Russian supply differs significantly for EU countries, as a whole, the union is one of the most important energy partners of the Russian Federation, importing 27 percent of its natural gas sources in 2015.
Overall, the desire to find alternative supply sources with the purpose of diversification of supplies and routes away from Russian natural gas has not yet yielded significant results in Europe, specifically in countries which have been more reliant on Russia.Â