Turkey's aim to diversify its energy needs strengthens聽its resolute stance to secure natural gas resources in the eastern聽Mediterranean, which may lead to normalization of聽its relations with Israel, says expert.聽
"Turkey鈥檚 long-term plan is to diversify聽from Iranian and Russian gas exports, where聽Turkey buys three quarters of its oil and聽gas needs from,"聽Soner Cagaptay, director of Turkish Research Program聽told The Anadolu Agency聽at Washington Institute in Istanbul.
"Diversification will be a serious strategy for Turkey, which is adamant about buying聽natural聽gas from the eastern Mediterranean," he said.聽
Out of Turkey's total gas consumption of 45 billion cubic meters in 2014, it聽imported聽almost 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia and Iran combined,聽according to figures from the Turkish聽Petroleum Pipeline Corporation, BOTAS.聽
"Gas deposits in the eastern Mediterranean are significant for the countries in the region, such as Israel,聽Cyprus聽and Turkey. For Israel, this is surplus聽gas, it鈥檚 more than they need聽so they will sell some of it," he said.聽
The Leviathan gas field, off the coast of Israel in the eastern Mediterranean,聽is estimated to have 510聽billion cubic meters of聽natural gas reserves,聽according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration聽data.聽
Cagaptay stressed that聽a Turkish-Israeli gas deal may precipitate normalization in聽Turkish-Israeli relations, adding,聽"I think one of the reasons why Turkey has been serious about normalizing ties with Israel is that there is an energy component involved."
Despite the long-term聽strategic alignment between Turkey and Israel regarding military and political cooperation in the Middle East during the 1990s, the聽relationship between the two countries has聽deteriorated from the mid-2000s onwards.
"Israelis are still hoping聽that the relationship with Turkey can be politically recovered. They are聽not yet committed to exploring the eastern Mediterranean gas fields, and聽they haven鈥檛 signed nor ratified anything yet," Cagaptay聽said.聽
"Israel聽wants to sell gas to Turkey聽because they realize that economic ties, which have remained strong between the two countries, can be built on further with a gas component. This can act as聽a shock absorber for聽Turkish-Israeli relations in the future," he added.聽
While Turkish imports from Israel rose聽from $1 billion to $2.4 billion聽between 2009 and 2013, Turkish聽exports to Israel also increased from $1.5 billion to $2.6 billion during the same period, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute, TUIK.聽聽
One route to deliver Israeli natural gas to Europe is via Turkey, the other option is to export gas through southern Cyprus to Greece.聽
Cagaptay underlined that since Turkey already has an existing natural gas grid,聽the infrastructure needed to export Israeli gas to Turkey聽and further to Europe,聽would be minimal, while the Cyprus route would be costly.聽
"A聽pipeline project from Israel via Cyprus to Greece, or a liquefied natural gas聽terminal聽on Cyprus would increase the cost of this project so much that it almost does not become profitable for Israel," said Cagaptay, adding that it聽is聽profitable for Israel to sell the gas through Turkey since the investment infrastructure needed will be聽minimal.
Cagaptay stated that since most of the Arab countries in the region either do not need natural gas or don鈥檛 have the money to buy聽gas, Turkey and Greece are the only other options in the vicinity.
"Greece is going through economic turmoil and is not in a position聽to make a long-term commitment to buy substantial amounts of gas. So, this only leaves Turkey as the only potential regional buyer," he added.聽
- Cyprus issues
The dispute between the Turkish and Greek Cypriot聽sides聽on sharing oil and gas resources off the coast of Cyprus聽is an additional layer on the strained relationship聽between the two.
The island of Cyprus聽was divided into northern Turkish and southern Greek territories, when a Greek-Cypriot coup聽in 1974聽to join the island to Greece was responded to聽by a Turkish peace mission.聽
The Greek Cypriot administration聽put聽peace talks on hold in early October after Turkey聽sent a ship to monitor聽an oil-and-gas exploration mission off the coast of Cyprus.
"Many people think, especially聽in Washington, that the exploration of聽gas fields together would be a way for the Turkish and Greek Cypriots to cooperate and聽eventually聽bring together the unification of the island," said Cagaptay.聽
State officials from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus聽have already repeated their firm stand on many occasions that the resources of the island of Cyprus belong聽to both communities and have reiterated that聽the Turkish Cypriots will not give up their rights on these resources.聽
Turkey's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu聽stated on Monday that聽oil聽and gas聽exploration off the Cyprus coast would only be possible if talks between Turkish Cypriots聽and the Greek聽Cypriot side resume聽solving the dispute.
The Aphrodite gas field, off the coast of southern Cyprus in eastern Mediterranean,聽is estimated to have聽200 billion cubic meters of natural gas, (almost four times聽Turkey's annual consumption in 2014),聽according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration data.
By Ovunc Kutlu
Anadolu Agency
ovunc.kutlu@aa.com.tr