1.5°C carbon budget to be depleted within 2 years, with record-high emissions in 2024
With 66% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, remaining carbon budget expected to be depleted within 2 years, Earth System Science Data report says

ISTANBUL
The world is on track to exceed its remaining carbon budget within the next two years if current emissions continue, according to a report published on Thursday.
The remaining carbon budget has shrunk by 80% since 2020, even at today's record-high emission levels, according to the Earth System Science Data report.
With a 66% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), the remaining carbon budget is expected to be depleted within two years.
A carbon budget is the maximum amount of CO2 that can be emitted over a given period while still limiting global warming to a certain temperature.
Exceeding the targeted carbon budget does not pose an immediate threat, nor does it imply that the 1.5°C threshold will be crossed right away.
However, we are rapidly approaching that critical tipping point, according to the report.
This has the potential to trigger irreversible impacts, including the risk of crossing tipping points.
Even temporarily exceeding the limit will result in stronger heat waves, increased flooding and droughts, sea-level rise acceleration, and more widespread wildfires.
Once the budget is exhausted, keeping the global temperature rise below 1.5°C would require net negative emissions.
This means removing more CO2 than we emit, which is technically challenging.
Exceeding the 1.5°C carbon budget would significantly reduce our ability to avoid the most dangerous consequences of climate change, the report stated.
There is an urgent need for deep and immediate emissions cuts to prevent the worst-case scenarios from becoming inevitable, the report emphasized.
The threshold is not yet crossed, but the remaining budget to stay below it is nearly gone.
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