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- While the Paris accord's 1.5 C target is not lost, current warming trends suggest 'we are likely to exceed this target in the 2030s,' says Rebecca Emerton, climate scientist at EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service

- 'We want to build upon the extremely valuable relationship with our many American partners to further improve the quality of numerical weather prediction — especially in the medium range,' says Florence Rabier, director-general of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

LONDON

Over 21 of the last 22 months, the planet has topped the critical 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold that scientists warn could trigger irreversible climate tipping points.

Climate change, largely driven by human activity, continues to accelerate Earth’s warming. Despite the 2015 Paris Agreement’s goal to keep the global temperature rise well below 2 C — and ideally under 1.5 C — continued reliance on fossil fuels and weakening climate policies are fueling a record-breaking streak of global heat compared to pre-industrial levels.

Data obtained by Anadolu from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), shows July 2023 was the first month on record when the global average surface temperature rose above the 1.5 C threshold. That month’s anomaly was measured at 1.52 C.

Between July 2023 and April 2025, 1.5 C was exceeded in all but one month. Monthly anomalies ranged between 1.5 C and 1.78 C, with July 2024 the only exception at 1.48 C.

“Over the past two years, we have seen many new records set for global average temperatures, and globally, April 2025 continued the long sequence of months over 1.5 C above the pre-industrial level,” said Rebecca Emerton, a climate scientist at C3S, the EU’s Earth Observation Program.

Stressing the importance of continued climate monitoring, Emerton told Anadolu that one or two years of temperatures exceeding 1.5 C did not mean the Paris Agreement target has been formally breached.

According to Copernicus, 2024 was the warmest year ever recorded and the first calendar year with a global average temperature 1.51 C above pre-industrial levels.

“We would need to see temperature anomalies of more than 1.5 C averaged over at least two decades (to breach the agreement target). Based on the current rate of warming, we are likely to exceed this target in the 2030s,” Emerton warned.

She emphasized that every fraction of a degree of warming that can be avoided would have an impact, as additional warming leads to increasingly severe impacts across the globe.

“We should strive to do as much as we can to limit the ongoing warming,” she said.

‘Repercussions’ for Earth system monitoring gaps

As record-breaking global temperatures continue to rise, concerns are growing over whether international climate efforts could backslide — particularly in light of US moves to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and promote fossil fuel-friendly policies under President Donald Trump.

His plans to slash funding for federal agencies involved in climate science have also raised alarm.

Speaking to Anadolu, Florence Rabier, director-general of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), warned that high-quality weather data is essential for governments to make informed decisions to protect citizens from climate-related threats.

The ECMWF, which runs the C3S and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service for the European Commission, is supported by 35 member and cooperating states.

“Medium-range 3-15 days weather predictions are essential for planning around extreme weather events like hurricanes. The weather knows no border and to successfully predict it over one area, data is needed from across the globe,” Rabier said.

These forecasts rely on a network of satellites, earth-based observations, weather balloons and synoptic stations, with countries around the world fundamentally dependent on each other for critical data.

Rabier called for stronger scientific cooperation with the US.

“We want to build upon the extremely valuable relationship with our many American partners to further improve the quality of numerical weather prediction — especially in the medium range, which is key to protect life and property,” she said.

Any gap in Earth system monitoring now will have “repercussions” not only for the present, but also in the long term, creating problems for future generations, she warned.

Climate progress ‘never a straight line’

Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, said it is too soon to declare the 1.5 C Paris target lost, though he raised concern about the prolonged stretch of high temperatures.

“With countries like the US backing away from global climate efforts, it is crucial to remember that progress is never a straight line. Every successful major movement in history has had to battle with setbacks,” he told Anadolu.

Childs pointed to the falling costs of clean technologies as a sign of hope. He said renewables are now the cheapest source of electricity, electric vehicles are becoming increasingly affordable, and the clean energy economy is growing rapidly, something he described as “good news.”

“Every tenth of a degree of warming matters, so we must keep pushing to limit it. We cannot abandon the millions already at risk from climate extremes — or future generations who will face even worse,” he urged.

A new forecast from Berkeley Earth puts the chance of 2025 becoming the warmest year on record at 18%, and the chance of it becoming the second warmest at 53%. Analysts say there is a 52% probability that the global average temperature in 2025 will again exceed 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels.