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• The runoff pits far-right leader George Simion, who won the first round, against Nicusor Dan, the independent centrist mayor of Bucharest

• The outcome will determine ‘whether Romania pursues reform and integration or veers toward nationalism and isolationism,’ says Alexandru Damian of the Romanian Center for European Policies

ATHENS 

Romanians will return to the polls on Sunday to elect a new president in a contest widely viewed as one of the most consequential in the country’s democratic history.

The runoff pits two radically different candidates against one another: George Simion, the leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), and Nicusor Dan, the independent centrist mayor of Bucharest, the capital home to a quarter of Romania’s 19 million citizens.

Recent polls have the two separated by only a few percentage points, pointing to a close race for who gets to lead the country – an EU and NATO member bordering Ukraine – at a geopolitically critical time.

Who votes and what’s at stake?

This is the third time Romanians are voting for a president in less than six months.

The original vote in November last year was annulled by Romania’s Constitutional Court over alleged foreign interference, particularly by Russia, and the far-right winner Calin Georgescu barred from running again.

The first round of the new vote was held on May 4, where Simion emerged as the clear frontrunner, and now some 18 million eligible voters – including approximately 7 million living abroad – will make a final choice this Sunday.

In the first round of the rerun, the turnout was around 53%, with roughly 9.5 million people voting, mirroring the participation seen in last year’s annulled election.

Romania’s president serves a five-year term and wields considerable authority in the country’s semi-presidential system. The office comes with powers that include commanding the armed forces, leading the Supreme Council of National Defense, nominating the prime minister, influencing judicial appointments, and shaping the country’s foreign policy – particularly in relation to the EU and NATO.

Stark contrast in contenders

This vote, analysts say, will decide whether Romania stays the course on European integration or takes a sharp nationalist turn that could reshape its place within the EU and strain diplomatic alliances.

Simion, 39, who secured nearly 41% of the vote in the first round, is seen as a firebrand nationalist and known for his admiration of US President Donald Trump, opposition to military and financial aid for Ukraine, and his Eurosceptic and isolationist rhetoric.

He was previously banned from both Ukraine and Moldova due to his advocacy for Romania’s pre-World War II borders, a stance that includes territorial claims on Moldova and parts of present-day Ukraine.

Dan, 56, secured around 21% in the first round and is banking on a strong turnout from Romania’s urban centers, youth, and the diaspora.

A former mathematician and civic activist, Dan is staunchly pro-EU, pro-NATO, and supportive of continued aid to Ukraine. His campaign has emphasized reform, transparency, and continued alignment with Western institutions.

Rising nationalism and disillusionment

The rise of Simion “reflects growing disillusionment with the ruling coalition, which many Romanians view as corrupt and ineffective,” according to Alexandru Damian, political analyst and programs director of the Romanian Center for European Policies.

AUR, he explained, has capitalized on widespread socioeconomic frustrations, including inflation, poor public services, and perceptions of elitism among Romania’s political establishment.

The party’s messaging – fueled by social media populism, inflammatory rhetoric, and nationalism – has resonated especially in rural areas and among voters disillusioned with traditional parties, he added.

While Simion’s hardline positions once placed him at the political fringe, Damian noted that the AUR leader has strategically softened his rhetoric, including affirming Romania’s place within the EU and NATO, to broaden his appeal beyond provinces with strong nationalist or socially conservative tendencies.

Economic anxiety, EU relations, and Romania’s future

Markets responded swiftly to the first-round results, with the Romanian leu seeing a sharp depreciation amid investor fears of political and economic instability under a potential Simion presidency.

Damian warned that a victory for Simion could lead to serious challenges for the Romanian economy, which is already grappling with high inflation and budget deficits.

Romania currently relies heavily on EU funds for development projects and infrastructure, and the bloc “might be reluctant to provide them to someone who strongly opposes its fundamental stances and principles,” he said.

Damian also cautioned that a Simion presidency could deepen polarization between urban and rural populations and widen divisions within the Romanian diaspora.

“While frustrations with the coalition are justified, the far right offers no viable solutions to corruption or inequality. The alternative is a pro-European candidate who can address these problems while strengthening democracy,” he said.

“The election’s outcome will determine whether Romania pursues reform and integration or veers toward nationalism and isolationism, potentially mirroring other illiberal regimes in the region.”