European natural gas and power markets are expected to remain rangebound through May as bearish momentum from global economic concerns balances against tight supply fundamentals and seasonal shifts in demand, according to the latest monthly outlook by the consultancy Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS) on late Wednesday.
On the gas side, the benchmark ICIS TTF front-month contract fell sharply in April, closing at �31.86 per megawatthours on 29 April - its lowest since July 2024 - as US President Trump’s announcement of a universal 10% import tariff spurred recession fears.
Simultaneously, EU proposals to reduce gas storage filling obligations from 90% to 83% contributed to a drop in summer contract premiums.
In global gas markets, LNG availability remains tight, with a forecasted shortfall of 0.3 million tons. Asia-Pacific demand continues to climb amid cooling needs.
In the power sector, May is expected to bring relatively stable prices amid mixed supply-demand dynamics. French nuclear generation remains steady year on year, but ongoing interconnector issues are weighing on exports and creating divergent regional price trends.
Record-high Nordic hydropower is supporting increased continental exports, while low hydro stocks in the Balkans and drought risks in France and Italy keep upward pressure on regional prices.
Power markets in southeastern Europe appear overvalued for the coming months, with risk premiums inflated by comparisons to the extreme heat of 2024. Meanwhile, the growing impact of solar generation is reshaping hourly pricing dynamics, leading to more frequent negative price events during midday hours.
Gas prices are likely to stay in a narrow band, with global supply risks, LNG competition, and storage policies providing potential volatility.
By Murat Temizer
Anadolu Agency