EU countries' national energy plans show that gas consumption is set to fall by 7% across the EU over the next five years, according to a new report by London-based energy think tank Ember.
"The EU is set to reduce its total gas demand by 7% in 2030 compared with 2023, from 326 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 302 bcm," Ember said in its report, based on data from EU Member States� National Energy and Climate Plans.
The projected decline reflects a broader trend across the EU, where natural gas demand declined by 19% between 2021 and 2023, dropping from 404 bcm to 326 bcm.
However, this long-term decline in EU gas demand contrasts with recent proposals to boost liquefied natural gas (LNG) import capacity by 54% by 2030.
"Gas is set for a decline, showing that plans to expand EU gas infrastructure may result in stranded assets," the report said.
Meanwhile, alongside the projected decline in gas demand, national targets indicate that renewable energy will continue to grow across the EU.
Renewables have surged across Europe in recent years, rising from 34% of EU electricity generation in 2019 to 47% in 2024, according to the report.
"Member States plan on doubling their total wind and solar capacity over the next five years, meaning renewables are set to generate two-thirds of all EU electricity by 2030," it added.
Electrification across the EU is projected to rise from 23% today to 30% by 2030, according to the report, indicating that member states plan to meet future energy needs with more clean electricity and less fossil gas.
"Plans to increase electrification across the bloc signal that the EU is at the beginning of a new phase of its energy transition where the whole system is backed by clean electricity," it added.
Commenting on the report, Ember's electricity transition analyst, Tomos Harrison noted that the EU’s national targets send a strong signal.
"The EU is ditching fossil gas for good," Harrison added. "This gas decline is already in progress, and 2030 targets show another strong fall to come."
"An electrified economy is where the EU is definitively heading, and any rush to overbuild gas infrastructure will inevitably end in costly stranded assets," he added.
Reporting by Nuran Erkul in London
Writing by Handan Kazanci
Anadolu Agency